Universal Pre-K in Georgia
Introduction
In 1995, Georgia launched the first statewide universal pre-K program in the United States. The program is completely free to families and is open to any child who turns 4 years old by September 1 of the relevant school year, space permitting.
Berne (2025) employs a difference-in-differences model to estimate the causal effects of the introduction of Georgia’s universal pre-K program on children’s long-run outcomes. The paper uses data from the American Community Survey (ACS) between 2005 and 2022. The treatment group is constructed of individuals born in Georgia who were pre-K age between 1987 and 2000. The control group is constructed of individuals in the 1987-2000 pre-K cohorts who were born in one of 23 other states that either had no state-funded pre-K or only a small (non-universal) program during the years of analysis.
The paper finds significant effects of universal pre-K on long-term outcomes. Exposure to the program reduced teen motherhood rates by 1.7 percentage points and teen fatherhood rates by 0.3 percentage points. Both rates of high school graduation and bachelor’s degree attainment increased by 1.5 percentage points among the treated group. In adulthood, the rate of SNAP benefit receipt decreased by 1.9 percentage points and employment increased by 0.5 percentage points. The paper also estimates that exposure to universal pre-K increased expected annual earnings by $1,006, though this estimate is imprecise.
Pays for Itself
Net Cost
The paper estimates the annual net cost of universal pre-K as the sum of the program’s effect on government pre-K spending and the long-run effects on government tax receipt and benefit spending.
The paper estimates that introducing universal pre-K reduced Head Start enrollment by 1.4 percentage points and increased enrollment in all other public pre-K programs (including universal pre-K) by 16.3 percentage points. Given the average cost to government of these programs, the paper estimates that spending fell by ($6,358 * 0.014) = $89 per child for Head Start and rose by ($3,678 * 0.163) = $600 per child for other public pre-K.
The paper estimates that the present value of future income tax revenue increased by ($2,093 * 0.2) = $419 annually and that the present value of future spending on SNAP benefits decreased by $117 annually.
The estimated net cost to government of funding an additional year of universal pre-K is therefore ($600 – $89 – $419 – $117) = -$25
Willingness to Pay
The paper estimates the annual willingness to pay for one year of exposure to universal pre-K as the sum of the increase in children’s future earnings, the loss in SNAP benefits children receive as adults, and contemporaneous savings from reduced expenditure on private pre-K.
The paper estimates that annual earnings for exposed children increased by $1,006. The paper adjusts this value to 1998 dollars and then discounts from each observed adult age back to age 4. The paper assumes an average marginal tax rate of 0.2 and a discount rate of 3%, yielding an estimated discounted increase in post-tax earnings of $1,674.
In 2018, the average monthly SNAP benefit amount was $239. The paper adjusts this value to 1998 dollars, multiplies it by 12 (to transform it into an annual measure) and then discounts from each observed adult age back to age 4. Given the paper’s estimate that annual SNAP enrollment decreased by 1.9 percentage points among the treated group, the present value of the loss in SNAP benefits children receive as adults is -$117.
The paper uses an estimate from Laughlin (2013) for the average cost of private pre-K to families, taken to be $4,966 annually. The paper estimates Georgia’s universal pre-K program reduced private pre-K enrollment by 3.2 percentage points annually, saving families $159 on average each year.
The total willingness to pay for an additional year of universal pre-K exposure is then $1,674 – $117 + $159 = $1,716.
MVPF Summary
The paper estimates a negative net cost and positive willingness to pay for Georgia’s universal pre-K program, suggesting the program’s introduction had an infinite MVPF.
However, the paper notes that the MVPF estimate is highly sensitive to the long-run earnings impact, which is imprecisely estimated. The MVPF is infinite as long as the earnings impact exceeds $943; the MVPF exceeds one as long as the earnings impact is greater than $168. Further, the analysis does not include any costs/benefits from reduced teen pregnancy or from potential impacts on children’s long-run criminal activity.
References
Berne, Jordan S. (2025). “The Long Run Impacts of Universal Pre-K with Equilibrium Considerations.” Working Paper. https://www.jordyberne.com/job-market-paper
Laughlin, Lynda (2013). “Who’s Minding the Kids? Childcare Arrangements: Spring 2011.” In Current Population Reports, P70-135. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau.
Policy Features
- Category
- Education
- Sub-Category
- Child Education
- Beneficiary Type(s)
- Children and Youth, Children under five
- Country of Implementation
- United States
- Year of Implementation
- 1995
- Empirical Method
- Difference in Differences
- Research Type
- Primary
- Peer Reviewed
- No
- MVPF Publication Link
- www.jordyberne.com/job-market-paper