The National Health Service (NHS) is England’s publicly funded healthcare service. In 2017, an overseeing body known as NHS Improvement (NHSI) implemented the Retention Direct Support Programme (RDSP) to reduce nurse turnover without changing financial incentives. Managers at hospital organizations (HOs) were given support from NHSI to develop an action plan with goals that addressed specific causes of nurse turnover within their organization. The managers received quarterly follow-ups over a year-long period. These follow-ups monitored progress at the HOs and provided support if they fell behind on their targets. Unlike other programs intended to improve the NHS, there was no universal target that all HOs were expected to meet.
The HOs were split up into five cohorts, with roll-out occurring between July 2017 and September 2019. Moscelli et al. (2023) uses a difference-in-difference estimation strategy with differential treatment timing to estimate the effects of these follow-ups on nurse retention as well as on patient outcomes. The paper finds the program increased nursing retention by 0.78 percentage points and decreased mortality within 30 days of hospital admission by 3.45 percent. The paper uses these estimates to calculate the MVPF of implementing this program.
Pays for Itself
The paper includes the direct cost of the program as well as the reduced costs of hiring due to the policy’s effect on nurse retention. As the program did not induce any transfers, the paper calculates the direct cost of the program as the opportunity costs of the labor needed to implement it. The authors were informed by NHS Improvement officers that approximately one full work day was spent per treated health organization. In addition, the paper makes some assumptions about the time spent by managers at the hospital organization level to implement the program. Using these time estimates and publicly available salary data, the authors estimate that 24,277.6 pounds were spent in labor costs per treated hospital organization.
In addition to the direct costs of implementing the program, the paper also includes the savings induced from increased nurse retention. The paper finds that the program causes an additional 1,697 nurses to stay at their hospital organizations. NHS Improvement estimates that it costs £11,400 to replace a nurse. Thus, the total savings of the program is £11,400*1,697 = £19,345,800 assuming that all unretained nurses would be replaced. As there were 132 treated hospital organizations, the savings per organization is £141,500.
Overall, the net cost per organization was £24,277.6 – £141,500 = -£117,222.4.
The authors measure the willingness-to-pay as the value of the additional life that patients receive due to the policy’s effect on reducing mortality rates. The results imply that 11,441 fewer patients die due to the introduction of RDSP. The paper uses the estimate that a Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) is worth £60,000 (Glover and Henderson, 2020) and assumes that each patient only will have one year of life after hospital discharge. This yields to a willingness-to-pay of 11,441*£60,000 = £686,460,000.
The paper finds that RDSP has a net cost of – £117,224 and finds a positive willingness-to-pay of £686,460,000. Thus, they find the policy has an infinite MVPF.
Moscelli, Giuseppe, Melisa Sayli, Jo Blanden, Marco Mello, Henrique Castro-Pires, and Chris Bojke (2023). “Non-monetary interventions, workforce retention and hospital quality: evidence from the English NHS.” Working Paper. https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/hedg/workingpapers/2023/2313.pdf.
Glover, David and John Henderson (2010). “Quantifying health impacts of government policies.” London: Department of Health. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7c5a3fe5274a7ee501a647/dh_120108.pdf.