From 2003-2017, the First Water Cistern (FWC) program built over one million rain-fed water storage cisterns across Brazil’s semi-arid region, a poor rural area historically affected by recurring droughts. The FWC program aimed to combat water scarcity and health risks associated with unsafe water consumption. The cisterns were delivered to families registered in the Brazilian federal government’s centralized welfare registry (CadUnico), and priority was given to those: (i) with low per capita income; (ii) headed by women; (iii) with a large number of children under age six or school-age children; (iv) with people with special needs and (v) with elderly people.
Barreto et al (2025) uses 4 main datasets; 1) the FWC program data including cistern build date and household information, 2) individual level data from the CadUnico welfare registry, 3) Bolsa Familia cash transfers which tracts cash transfers to families living below the poverty line, and 4) employer-employee data from RAIS. In order to identify the causal effects of the FWC policy, the paper uses a difference-in-differences design by leveraging the staggered timing in cistern delivery. The paper uses a control group composed of not-yet-treated households, while focusing on effects for up to 10 years post treatment.
MVPF = 2.9
The paper considers two scenarios: one where the FWC impact lasts 10 years, and one where the impact lasts 15 years (remaining constant from year 10.) In each case, the paper calculates the net government cost as the cistern’s unit cost of 4,140 BRL, and the fiscal externalities due to reduced Bolsa Familia receipts and increased taxes levied on formal earnings.
The net government cost is in the 10-year scenario is then: R$4,140 – (R$758 + R$664) = R$2,717 (accounting for rounding)
And in the 15-year scenario: R$4140 – ((R$758 + R$490) + (R$664 + R$296)) = R$1,932
The paper calculates total willingness to pay (private value) for the cisterns as (net present value of total income effect + net present value of cash transfer effect– 1/3(net present value of taxes on formal labor income). The 1/3 multiplier on the net present value of taxes on formal labor income represents accounts for workers bearing one third of taxes and contributions on formal labour income, with the remaining share levied on employers.
The willingness to pay in the 10-year scenario is then: R$8,970 – R$758 – (R$664/3) = R$7,990
And in the 15-year scenario: R$14761 – R$1248 – (R$960/3) = R$13,193
If the impacts lasts 10 years, the estimated MVPF is R$7,990/R$2,717 = 2.94.
If the impacts lasts 15 years, the estimated MVPF is R$13,193/ R$1,932 = 6.83.
The paper notes that these estimates are likely conservative as they don’t include private valuations for health improvements, future income gains by children, and improved birth outcomes.
Barreto, Yuri, Diogo Britto, Bladimir Carrillo, Daniel Da Mata, Lucas Emanuel, and Breno Sampaio (2025). “Cisterns for Life: Climate Adaptation Policies for Water Provision and Rural Lives.” WIDER Working Paper. 97/2025. https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2025/656-8