Argentina Pre-Primary Classroom Construction
Introduction
Berlinski et al. (2026) examine the impact of a public school construction program to increase pre-primary attendance in Argentina. Between 1993 and 1999, the government financed the construction of over 3,000 new pre-primary classrooms, creating over 180,000 new places for children aged 3-5. The paper exploits the rollout of the policy across departments (roughly equivalent to US counties) to construct a difference-in-differences model, comparing high- to low-construction departments across treated and untreated cohorts. Using administrative records on classroom construction and population censuses, the paper reports effects on additional years of schooling, secondary school completion, post-secondary enrollment, and live births for women.
Pays for Itself
Net Cost
The paper calculates total net costs as the sum of direct preschool resource costs for the entering cohort (~$10,636), the present value of additional public schooling outlays as a result of higher retention (~$9,845), increased tax revenue as a result of increased adult earnings (~$60,439), and reduced tax revenue as a result of foregone youth earnings due to longer time in school (~$388). The estimated numbers are based off of an expansion of 50 seats and assuming a proportional tax rate of 0.25.
The estimated net cost is then $10,636 + $9,845 – $60,439 + $388 = -$39,570.
Willingness to Pay
Willingness to pay is calculated as the lifetime earnings gains generated for each induced participant, taking into account both increased earnings as an adult and reduced earnings in youth. The paper estimates the present value of benefits per treated child, assuming labor market entry at age 18 and exit at age 65. The paper uses microdata to trace out age-earnings and age-employment profiles used to forecast lifetime earnings gains.
The estimated present value of benefits is ~$241,755 and reduced youth earnings ~$1,554 for an expansion of 50 seats. Assuming a proportional tax rate of 0.25, the estimated willingness to pay is 0.75*($241,755 – $1,554) = $180,151.
MVPF Summary
With a positive WTP and a negative net cost, the MVPF of the intervention is infinite. The paper presents several sensitivity checks, such as varying the return to a year of schooling and raising the social discount rate. These checks all imply an infinite MVPF.
References
Berlinski, Samuel, Guillermo Cruces, Sebastian Galiani, Paul Gertler, and Fabian Gonzalez (2026). “Long-Run Effects of Universal Pre-Primary Education Expansion: Evidence from Argentina.” NBER Working Paper No. 34552. http://www.nber.org/papers/w34552.
Policy Features
- Category
- Education
- Sub-Category
- Child Education
- Beneficiary Type(s)
- Children under five, Primary school enrollees
- Average Age
- 3-5
- Country of Implementation
- Argentina
- Year of Implementation
- 1993-1999
- Empirical Method
- Difference in Differences
- Research Type
- Primary
- Peer Reviewed
- No
- MVPF Publication Link
- www.nber.org/papers/w34552